Name: .JACOBS_Nat_Haz_Shoreline_50yr_RCP85_average

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Description: <DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN>Coastal Erosion Hazard Zones (CEHZ) calculated from the following formula to meet the requirements of NZCPS Policy 24: </SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>CEHZ = (LT X T) + SL + ST + DS </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>Where </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>LT = Rate of long-term shoreline movement </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>T = Time frame (e.g. 50 &amp; 100 years) </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>SL = Sea level rise erosion over time frame for each agreed projection of sea level rise to be used </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>ST = Storm term storm erosion </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN>DS = Dune stability factor</SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN /></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>The methodology used in the investigations meets the requirements of the NZCPS and CRPS for identification of coastal hazards, and follows the guidance for inclusion of sea level rise (SLR) given in MfE(2017). </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN /><SPAN /></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>The Coastal Erosion Hazard Zone (CEHZ) mapping indicates that for the majority of the district’s coastline, the continued Waimakariri River sand supply will dominate over SLR induced erosion for over 100 years under all SLR scenarios. Only at the northern end of the district around Waikuku would a CEHZ be required to be located landward of the existing dune vegetation limit, and then only most likely by around 20 m under the most extreme RCP8.5+ SLR scenario. In no location under any SLR scenario over the next 130 years does the projected erosion extend into developed areas landward of the existing dune at Waikuku and Kairaki. </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN /></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;"><SPAN>Refer to the report mentioned in the summary for further information.</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV></DIV>

Copyright Text: Jacobs New Zealand Limited Level 2, Wynn Williams Building 47 Hereford Street Christchurch Central PO Box 1147, Christchurch 8140 New Zealand T +64 3 940 4900 F +64 3 940 4901 www.jacobs.com

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